the rule, the reason, the record

Tags

Every tag on a card is a one-line rule over numbers the engine archives each cycle. Under each rule is what followed that state on our own labelled book: mean net R after the round-trip fee, hit rate, and how many days it was positive. The losing tags are here too. That is the point.

book: 71,692 labelled candidates over 37 days · rebuilt 2026-08-25T17:24:22Z · numbers withheld below n=100

vol

hot

1h ATR >= 2% of price

Wide enough that the exchange fee is a small share of the stop.

n
14,516
net R
-0.059R
hit
46%
days +
14/37
gross -0.039R before fees · fires 392.3x/day

quiet

1h ATR < 1% of price

The fee alone is 0.11R+ of any 1-ATR stop here; the book lost -0.23R/trade in this bucket.

n
38,536
net R
-0.231R
hit
42%
days +
3/37
gross +0.006R before fees · fires 1041.5x/day

funding

funding hot

funding > +0.03% per 8h

Longs are paying to hold. Crowded on the long side.

n
2,412
net R
-0.012R
hit
50%
days +
18/37
gross +0.032R before fees · fires 65.2x/day

funding negative

funding < -0.01% per 8h

Shorts are paying. Perp trades below index; selling is perp-led.

n
24,083
net R
-0.132R
hit
43%
days +
5/37
gross -0.045R before fees · fires 650.9x/day

volume

volume spike

volume ratio >= 1.8x its baseline

Participation is above normal for this coin.

n
18,098
net R
-0.069R
hit
46%
days +
8/37
gross -0.017R before fees · fires 489.1x/day

volume dead

volume ratio < 0.6x baseline

Nobody is here. Fills are worse than the chart suggests.

n
27,918
net R
-0.203R
hit
43%
days +
1/37
gross +0.001R before fees · fires 754.5x/day

range

at range top

range position > 85% of the recent range

Pressing the ceiling.

n
12,747
net R
-0.094R
hit
47%
days +
10/37
gross +0.013R before fees · fires 344.5x/day

at range bottom

range position < 15%

Pressing the floor.

n
14,706
net R
-0.143R
hit
43%
days +
7/37
gross -0.041R before fees · fires 397.5x/day

momentum

overbought 1h+4h

RSI(1h) > 70 and RSI(4h) > 65

Both timeframes stretched the same way.

n
11,927
net R
-0.043R
hit
48%
days +
14/37
gross +0.017R before fees · fires 322.4x/day

oversold 1h+4h

RSI(1h) < 30 and RSI(4h) < 35

Both timeframes stretched the same way.

n
5,841
net R
-0.099R
hit
45%
days +
11/35
gross -0.009R before fees · fires 157.9x/day

trending

ADX > 30

Directional movement is strong regardless of side.

n
53,676
net R
-0.119R
hit
45%
days +
4/37
gross -0.001R before fees · fires 1450.7x/day

flat

ADX < 18

No trend to ride; breakouts here have failed more often.

n
4,641
net R
-0.279R
hit
40%
days +
3/37
gross -0.048R before fees · fires 125.4x/day

move

moved >5% today

|24h change| > 5%

Already extended on the day.

n
43,132
net R
-0.063R
hit
46%
days +
12/37
gross -0.017R before fees · fires 1165.7x/day

Each record is the mean net R (after the round-trip fee) of every labelled candidate that carried the tag, day-blocked. It is a description of what followed that state on this book, not a forecast. Numbers are withheld below n=100. The best composite we ever found netted -0.057R over two years.

See the tags live on the 50 cards, which fired today in the digest, and how the book is labelled in the methodology.